The Headline

The DTC wine industry started 2026 on a cautiously optimistic note, with Net Sales Wine down just 1.9% in January compared to 2025—a meaningful improvement from the 2.9% decline seen in the Last 12 Months trailing performance. Cases Sold fell 3.2%, indicating continued volume pressure, but the gap between revenue and volume declines has narrowed compared to recent quarters. Most encouraging, the Last 12 Months metrics moved in the right direction across key revenue indicators, though one month of improvement doesn't constitute a trend.

The Deeper Story

January's performance reflects the typical post-holiday slowdown, but with less severity than recent patterns. The -1.9% Net Sales Wine decline is notable given January's seasonal headwinds—historically the slowest month for tasting rooms as consumers recover from holiday spending and the temperatures drop. What's particularly interesting is that Orders declined only 1.3% while Purchasers fell 1.9%, suggesting wineries are maintaining transaction volume better than unique customer counts. Average Order Value dropped 1.1%, a rare decline that may indicate more price-conscious purchasing behavior or strategic promotional activity to stimulate volume.

Reading the Numbers

The trajectory signals are mixed but contain important positives. Tasters declined just 0.8% in January—a significant improvement from the 7.2% Last 12 Months decline, suggesting tasting room traffic may be stabilizing despite seasonal headwinds. However, club metrics remain concerning: January saw 2.1% monthly attrition against 1.2% signups, creating a 0.9% net membership decline. While club metrics are seasonally slow in Q1, this gap between attrition and recruitment continues the negative club growth pattern that has plagued the industry. The Last 12 Months club growth of -5.8% represents ongoing membership erosion that threatens future revenue sustainability.

Last 12 Months Trend

The trailing 12-month view offers the most encouraging signal: Net Sales Wine Last 12 Months improved from -3.7% to -2.9%, Cases Sold improved from -3.9% to -2.5%, and Orders improved from -4.0% to -3.6%. This represents meaningful momentum in the underlying trend, free from seasonal distortions. However, Purchasers worsened from -3.8% to -4.7%, and Tasters declined further from -6.3% to -7.2%. The improving revenue metrics alongside worsening customer acquisition signals suggest wineries are getting better at extracting value from existing relationships while still struggling to expand their customer base.

WISE Triple Score (Asking for the Order, Warm Invitation to Club, Robust Data Capture)

Tasting room effectiveness shows encouraging signs with Wine Club Conversion improving 5.7% year-over-year, reaching 5.9% of tasters. Wine Order Conversion held steady at 21.0% with a slight 1.6% decline, which is relatively strong given the challenging environment. Most notably, Guest Account usage improved significantly with a 5.2% reduction in guest checkout usage—meaning wineries captured more customer data in January 2026 than 2025. At 8.2% guest usage, wineries are successfully building their databases for future marketing efforts. These operational improvements in tasting room efficiency help explain why revenue metrics are outperforming customer traffic declines.

What to Watch

January's results suggest potential stabilization, but the club membership erosion and continued Purchaser declines require attention. The improving Last 12 Months revenue trends are encouraging, but we'll need to see this continue for several more months before declaring a meaningful shift. Wineries should focus on converting the improved data capture and club conversion rates into sustained membership growth. The narrowing gap between revenue and volume declines indicates pricing power may be reaching limits, making customer retention and reactivation increasingly critical. Wineries struggling with member retention often have untapped opportunities sitting in their own customer data — ones that targeted analysis and proactive outreach can unlock.

The Headline

The DTC wine industry endured another challenging year in 2025, with Net Sales down 3.4% and Cases Sold declining 3.9% year-to-date. This marks the third consecutive year of contraction, though the pace of decline has remained relatively stable compared to 2024. Most concerning is the 5.6% drop in Club Growth Value, signaling that wineries are losing more club members than they're gaining - a trend that threatens the foundation of the DTC business model.

What to Watch

With club members generating 3-5x higher lifetime value than one-time buyers, the negative 5.6% Club Growth Value cannot continue without severe long-term revenue consequences. Wineries must prioritize retention over acquisition in the near term while rebuilding their tasting room pipeline - the 6.3% Tasters decline suggests club recruitment challenges will persist well into 2026. The positive news is that momentum on Club Growth improved significantly by year-end (-1.0% Q4 vs. -5.6% Full Year 2025). Since Q4 represents one quarter, that -1.0% extrapolates to roughly -4% on an annual basis—a meaningful improvement from the full year's -5.6% decline. This is notable because Q4 is a major club shipment quarter—when cancellations typically spike as members decide whether to continue—unlike the summer months when shipping pauses due to heat. The improved Q4 performance suggests some wineries may have found effective retention strategies worth studying and replicating.

The Deeper Story

The data exposes a customer base erosion problem masked by pricing throughout most of 2025. Purchasers declined 3.8% YTD - nearly matching the Net Sales decline - indicating wineries are losing unique customers at an alarming rate rather than simply seeing reduced purchase frequency. The 6.3% drop in Tasters compounds this concern, as tasting room visits are the primary pipeline for club recruitment. With Club Growth Value down 5.6%, wineries are caught in a problematic cycle: fewer visitors leading to fewer club signups, while existing members cancel at accelerating rates. The fact that AOV gains evaporated in Q4 might suggest consumers finally hit their price tolerance ceiling.