Enolytics DTC Wine Industry Annual Snapshot 2025

The Headline

The DTC wine industry endured another challenging year in 2025, with Net Sales down 3.4% and Cases Sold declining 3.9% year-to-date. This marks the third consecutive year of contraction, though the pace of decline has remained relatively stable compared to 2024's -3.4% Net Sales performance. Most concerning is the 5.6% drop in Club Growth Value, signaling that wineries are losing more club members than they're gaining - a trend that threatens the foundation of the DTC business model.

Reading the Numbers

The trajectory data reveals deteriorating momentum as 2025 progressed. While YTD Net Sales declined 3.4%, the most recent month showed steeper declines at -4.5%, with December's critical holiday period underperforming expectations. The volume story is particularly stark: Cases Sold worsened from -3.9% YTD to -5.2% in the final month, while AOV turned negative in Q4 after staying barely positive (+0.2%) for the year. This suggests that even the pricing power that helped cushion revenue declines earlier in the year began to fade.

The Deeper Story

The data exposes a customer base erosion problem masked by pricing throughout most of 2025. Purchasers declined 3.8% YTD - nearly matching the Net Sales decline - indicating wineries are losing unique customers at an alarming rate rather than simply seeing reduced purchase frequency. The 6.3% drop in Tasters compounds this concern, as tasting room visits are the primary pipeline for club recruitment. With Club Growth Value down 5.6%, wineries are caught in a vicious cycle: fewer visitors leading to fewer club signups, while existing members cancel at accelerating rates. The fact that AOV gains evaporated in Q4 suggests consumers finally hit their price tolerance ceiling.

What to Watch

The club membership hemorrhaging represents an existential threat that requires immediate attention. With club members generating 3-5x higher lifetime value than one-time buyers, the negative 5.6% Club Growth Value cannot continue without severe long-term revenue consequences. Wineries must prioritize retention over acquisition in the near term while rebuilding their tasting room pipeline - the 6.3% Tasters decline suggests club recruitment challenges will persist well into 2026. The positive news is that momentum on Club Growth improved significantly by year-end (-0.2% MTD vs -5.6% YTD), indicating some wineries may have found effective retention strategies worth studying and replicating.